Researchers from Ifremer and the University of Lausanne have developed a new model to reassess the proportion of terrestrial and marine species at risk of extinction due to climate change. While conventional models predict that local species diversity in the tropics could decline by up to 54% between 2041 and 2060, the new model forecasts a reduction of 39%. Although this lower estimate is still concerning, the researchers emphasize the need for immediate measures to mitigate climate change and its impact on biodiversity.
Improved predictions for biodiversity loss
The study, published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, highlights the importance of updating statistical models to consider species’ potential pre-adaptation to changing climates. Traditional models have not accounted for the possibility that species, having evolved during warmer inter-glacial periods, may already be pre-adapted to future climatic conditions. This oversight has led to potentially inaccurate predictions about species’ ability to survive in higher temperatures.
For instance, conventional models suggest that tropical marine or terrestrial species will disappear in areas where temperatures exceed the current warming threshold of 48 degrees Celsius. However, the new model explores whether these species might actually tolerate higher temperatures, up to 50 degrees Celsius or beyond, due to historical pre-adaptation.
Testing new model
The researchers tested their model on nearly 25,000 terrestrial and marine species worldwide, including animals and plants for which the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) provides geographic distribution maps. By combining this data with future climate change scenarios from the IPCC and CMIP5, they found that 49% of these species live in climate zones adjacent to the boundaries of current conditions, and 86% might have habitats beyond these boundaries. For marine species, this figure rises to 92%.
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Findings in tropical regions
The study’s most striking results relate to tropical regions. While conventional models predict a loss of up to 54% of tropical terrestrial species by 2041-2060, the new model predicts a reduction of ‘only’ 39%. This suggests that tropical species may tolerate climate change better than previously thought, although the estimates for species in cold, alpine, and polar regions, as well as temperate zones, remain valid due to the absence of similar pre-adaptations.
The findings highlight the need for continuous updates to predictive models and the development of new hypotheses regarding species’ responses to climate change. The researchers urge immediate actions to reduce climate change impacts and emphasize the importance of adaptive management strategies for biodiversity conservation.
The urgency of addressing climate change is underscored by the stark reality facing numerous species. By 2050, many animals are at risk of extinction if current trends continue. The list below includes 87 species that could become extinct by 2050 due to climate change and human activities:
Threatened species
| Animals That Will Be Extinct by 2050 |
|---|
| 1. Amur Leopard |
| 2. Sumatran Elephant |
| 3. Arabian Leopard |
| 4. Sunda Tiger |
| 5. African Lion |
| 6. Bornean Orangutan |
| 7. African Wild Dog |
| 8. Asian Elephant |
| 9. Red Wolf |
| 10. Eastern Lowland Gorilla |
| 11. Black-Footed Ferret |
| 12. Mountain Gorilla |
| 13. Red Panda |
| 14. Yangtze Finless Porpoise |
| 15. Bonobo |
| 16. Sumatran Rhino |
| 17. Pygmy Raccoon |
| 18. African Forest Elephant |
| 19. Vancouver Island Marmot |
| 20. Cross River Gorilla |
| 21. South China Tiger |
| 22. Asiatic Cheetah |
| 23. Koala |
| 24. Sahafary Sportive Lemur |
| 25. Polar Bear |
| 26. Vaquita |
| 27. Saola |
| 28. Northern Hairy-Nosed Wombat |
| 29. Whale Sharks |
| 30. Bactrian Camel |
| 31. Northern Muriqui |
| 32. Hawksbill Sea Turtle |
| 33. Loggerhead Sea Turtle |
| 34. Sea Otter |
| 35. Blue Whale |
| 36. Fin Whale |
| 37. River Dolphins |
| 38. Florida Manatee |
| 39. Galapagos Penguin |
| 40. Hawaiian Monk Seal |
| 41. Kemp’s Ridley Sea Turtle |
| 42. Burmese Roofed Turtle |
| 43. Pteropods |
| 44. Krill |
| 45. Great Hammerhead Shark |
| 46. Smalleye Hammerhead Shark |
| 47. Scalloped Hammerhead Shark |
| 48. Ringed Seal |
| 49. Harlequin Filefish |
| 50. Atlantic Halibut |
| 51. Beluga Sturgeon |
| 52. Southern Bluefin Tuna |
| 53. Nassau Grouper |
| 54. Winter Skate |
| 55. Red Tuna |
| 56. Sceloporus Lizard |
| 57. Eurasian Lizard |
| 58. Anatolian Water Frog |
| 59. Jamaican Iguana |
| 60. Philippine Crocodile |
| 61. Kakapo |
| 62. Antbirds |
| 63. California Condor |
| 64. Red-Headed Vulture |
| 65. Indian White-Rumped Vulture |
| 66. Slender-Billed Vulture |
| 67. Indian Vulture |
| 68. Mariana Fruit Dove |
| 69. Hooded Grebe |
| 70. Northern Bald Ibis |
| 71. Regent Honeyeater |
| 72. Macaws |
| 73. Sierra Nevada Yellow-Legged Frog |
| 74. California Red-Legged Frog |
| 75. Chiricahua Leopard Frog |
| 76. Dusky Gopher Frog |
| 77. Axolotl |
| 78. Chinese Giant Salamander |
| 79. Arroyo Toad |
| 80. Oregon Spotted Frog |
| 81. Flatwoods Salamander |
| 82. Amargosa Toad |
| 83. Bumblebees |
| 84. Peacock Tarantula |
| 85. Chinese Giant Salamander |
| 86. Rameshwaram Parachute Spider |
| 87. Crau Plain Grasshopper |
Endangered species at brink of extinction
The IUCN Red List details the conservation status of endangered species worldwide. Here are 15 of the most endangered animals right now, which are on the brink of extinction:
| Endangered Animal | Conservation Status | Current Population |
|---|---|---|
| African Forest Elephant | Critically Endangered | 415,000 (all African elephants) |
| Eastern Lowland Gorilla | Critically Endangered | Estimated 4,000 |
| Giant Ibis | Critically Endangered | Estimated 200 |
| Hawksbill Turtle | Critically Endangered | Estimated 8,000 |
| Javan Rhinoceros | Critically Endangered | Estimated 75 |
| Orangutan | Endangered, Critically Endangered | 104,700 Bornean 7,500 Sumatran 800 Tapanuli |
| Vaquita | Critically Endangered | Estimated 10 |
| Gray Wolf | Endangered | 12,650 to 16,850 |
| Irrawaddy Dolphin | Endangered | Estimated 92 |
| Koala | Endangered | Estimated 100,000 (could be as low as 43,000) |
| Bluefin Tuna | Endangered | Indeterminate |
| Tiger | Endangered | Estimated 3,900 |
| Giant Panda | Vulnerable | 1,864 in the wild |
| Polar Bear | Vulnerable | 22,000 – 31,000 |
| Island Fox | Threatened | Estimated 8,702 |
The findings from Ifremer and the University of Lausanne underscore the importance of updating models to better predict species’ responses to climate change. While the lower predicted loss of biodiversity in tropical regions is somewhat reassuring, the overall outlook remains dire, particularly for species in cold, alpine, and polar regions. Immediate action is crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and preserve global biodiversity.
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